Real signals
We look beyond traditional fundraising folklore with empirical observations about the dynamics of funding flows for founders and investors. Grounded in lived experience and the patterns real data makes visible, we share fundamental insights and contextualize the technical shifts driving tomorrow's markets.
Latest articles
Fresh perspectives on fundraising and venture decision-making.
What Is Indemnification?
The Sibyl Un-Glossary · What it actually means Indemnification Indemnification is a contractual promise to compensate another party for specified losses when defined risks or breaches occur. The Sibyl Un-Glossary starts with the definition, then goes beyond it to where founders misinterpret the term. More VC terms in the Un-Glossary → Indemnification is one of […]
What Is Carried Interest?
Carry isn’t 20% of the fund, and figuring out who actually receives it — and when — is where the simple headline number stops being simple. What carry really means for the people across the table.
What Is a Holdback?
The Sibyl Un-Glossary · What it actually means Holdback A holdback is a portion of an acquisition’s purchase price that the buyer retains at closing and pays later, subject to agreed conditions, claims, or adjustments, rather than placing the money with an independent escrow holder. The Sibyl Un-Glossary starts with the definition, then goes beyond […]
What Is Antidilution?
Antidilution sounds like a promise you won’t be diluted. It isn’t. What the term actually protects against — and how the wrong provision can make a down round worse, not better.
What Is a General Partner (GP)?
The Sibyl Un-Glossary · What it actually means General Partner (GP) A general partner is the entity responsible for managing a venture fund and making its investment decisions, typically structured as a legal entity separate from the management company and distinct from the limited partners who supply the fund’s capital. The Sibyl Un-Glossary starts with […]
What Is Equity Crowdfunding?
Reg CF and an AngelList syndicate can both happen online, but they’re legally different animals. A clear-eyed look at what equity crowdfunding actually means before you pick a structure.
What Is Fully Diluted?
The Sibyl Un-Glossary · What it actually means Fully Diluted Fully diluted is an ownership calculation that assumes every outstanding option, warrant, and convertible security has already been exercised or converted into common shares, rather than counting only the shares currently issued and outstanding. The Sibyl Un-Glossary starts with the definition, then goes beyond it […]
What Is Due Diligence?
Due diligence doesn’t start where founders think it does — investors are often diligencing a company well before they say yes. What actually happens, and when.
What Is Startup Valuation?
The Sibyl Un-Glossary · What it actually means Valuation Valuation is the negotiated price used to issue new equity in a financing round, usually stated on a pre money or post money basis, rather than a final judgment of the company’s intrinsic worth. The Sibyl Un-Glossary starts with the definition, then goes beyond it to […]
What Is a Valuation Cap?
A $10 million cap doesn’t mean your company is worth $10 million, and it doesn’t dilute the same way every time. What a valuation cap actually controls in a SAFE or note.
What Is a Pivot?
The Sibyl Un-Glossary · What it actually means Pivot A deliberate change to a fundamental assumption behind a startup’s strategy, such as its target customer, the problem it solves, or how it makes money, made because the evidence shows that assumption was wrong, while carrying forward what the company has already learned. The Sibyl Un-Glossary […]
What Is Crowdfunding?
The Sibyl Un-Glossary · What it actually means Crowdfunding Crowdfunding is the practice of raising small amounts of capital from a large number of people, typically through an online platform. The Sibyl Un-Glossary starts with the definition, then goes beyond it to where founders misinterpret the term. More VC terms in the Un-Glossary → Founders […]
What Is a Down Round?
A 30% valuation drop doesn’t mean 30% dilution. What actually determines a founder’s real outcome in a down round — and why the headline number is only the beginning.
What Is Convertible Debt?
Convertible debt is simple in theory: take the money, decide valuation later. In practice, almost every part of that shorthand hides a qualification founders miss until it matters.
What Is Burn Rate?
Burn rate looks like one number, but gross burn, net burn, and last month’s number can each tell a very different story about your runway. What to watch for before the math misleads you.
What Is SOM?
SOM is where market opportunity stops being theoretical and starts colliding with execution. What a company can realistically win with the team and resources it has today.
What Is SAM?
SAM becomes useful the moment a founder stops treating every plausible customer as equally addressable. What it narrows down, and how it differs from TAM and SOM.
What Is TAM?
TAM looks simpler than it is. Founders often use it to answer three different questions at once: how big the opportunity is, who they can serve, and how much they could win.
What Is a Seed Round?
Seed sounds like one of the easier financing stages to understand, until you notice how far the vocabulary has drifted from what investors actually mean by it today.
What Is a Capitalization/Cap Table?
A cap table looks like a simple list of names and percentages — until you look at what’s included in the denominator and what’s still waiting to convert. What founders get wrong about reading their own cap table.
What Is a Moat?
A moat sounds obvious until someone asks what yours actually is. What separates a real, durable advantage from whatever currently makes the product look impressive.
What Is an Accredited Investor?
Accredited doesn’t mean approved, and it doesn’t just mean millionaire. A practical look at what the label actually requires under U.S. securities law — and what it doesn’t.
What Is an Angel Investor?
An angel check can feel informal because it’s early and personal — but the ownership and promises it creates are anything but casual. What actually changes once an angel is on your cap table.
What Are Advisers?
Founders bring on the wrong advisers when they are not clear on what they actually need from them. What an adviser relationship should deliver, and how compensation typically works.
What is Market Cap vs Valuation?
Market cap is one of the most common measures of company value, and one of the easiest to misapply to a startup that is not public. What the number actually means, and when it does not apply.
What Is Market Size?
Founders rarely get market size wrong because they cannot find a number, it is usually because they measure the wrong thing. Where TAM, SAM, and SOM estimates actually go wrong.
Education After “Intelligence” Becomes a Commodity
As builders and parents, we spend a lot of time thinking about what makes software a good, enduring solution, while also pondering how best to educate our kids. Thinking through what makes an enduring technical solution naturally made us ponder what makes a resilient human in the age of AI. Machines can now do a […]
Building a Moat After “Intelligence” Becomes a Commodity
AI has made it remarkably easy to build an impressive product demonstration. Give a model a familiar task, provide enough context, and it can generate something that looks competent within seconds. But a strong demonstration is not the same as a defensible company. For founders raising capital, and investors evaluating them, the important question is […]
The Anatomy of Investor Lists: What Data Cannot Tell You (Part 2)
In Part 1, we looked at the investor behavior you can infer from data. How a fund leads, follows, prices, concentrates, reserves, and syndicates leaves a trail across rounds, and a good list uses it to show who can lead, who follows, who brings others in, who has follow-on capacity, who is likely to be […]
The Anatomy of Investor Lists: What Data Can Tell You (Part 1)
A good investor list is not just a list of names. Most founders build their investor lists the same way. They start with fund names, filter by the stages and sectors an investor says they invest in, and then go looking for introductions. That produces a list of plausible targets, but it is built entirely […]